How fair value works

Every player has two prices.

One is the crowd's. One is the stats'. Watch them drift — the distance between them is the whole game.

Fair valueMarket pricethe gap — where you trade

Fair value

What a player's on-court production is worth — built from his real, public stats, not hype. It moves when he plays, not when people trade.

Market price

What people are actually paying for his shares right now — hype, news, a hot streak.

📐

When they drift apart, that's the gap — and that's your trade. The stats show what a player has done; you might see what they can't — a leap coming, a decline, a part of his game the box score misses. When your read doesn't match the crowd's price, you buy or sell.

What goes into fair value

Three things a player does on the floor.

Pillar 1

Scoring

We value scoring — and most of all, efficient scoring. 20 points on 10 shots beats 20 points on 20 shots. And the league's truly elite scorers earn a little extra.

PointsShooting %3-pt makes

Pillar 2

Court impact

We credit setting up teammates, cleaning the glass, and taking care of the ball — assists and rebounds add, turnovers take away.

AssistsRebounds− Turnovers

Pillar 3

Defense

We reward players who hustle and do the defensive work — steals, blocks, and the deflections that break up a play.

StealsBlocksDeflections

Then three adjustments

How he's playing, whether his team wins, and whether he shows up.

Recent form

His last 7 games count most, so a real hot or cold streak moves the price — but one big night doesn't whipsaw it.

Team success

Winning is valuable — it's the heart of competitive basketball. Players on winning teams get rewarded.

Durability

One injury season happens to anyone — it costs nothing. But a player who's missed big stretches of the last few seasons carries a small discount and a badge showing how many games he's missed, so you know exactly why.

The whole machine

The formula, opened up.

This is the entire calculation, end to end — every input, every step, in order. The only thing we keep to ourselves is the exact size of each weight. Everything else, you can check.

production score = Scoring + Court impact + Defense + Elite bonus

fair value = production score × Team success × Durability × price conversion

ScoringPoints per game, multiplied up when true shooting beats the league average. The multiplier only ever helps — below-average shooting is never punished. Plus a kicker for three-point makes, unlocked only if he shoots at least the league-average 3-pt%.

Court impactAssists and rebounds add; turnovers charge against it. Giveaways cost real value — empty volume can't hide here.

DefenseSteals and blocks, plus deflections above the league bar. Deflections catch the disruptive perimeter defense that steals alone miss — but only activity above a league-average level earns anything.

Elite bonusExtra credit once scoring clears an elite bar — reserved for the league's true No. 1 options. Only about 20 players a season qualify.

Team successPlaying on a winner earns up to +12% (win% above .600, scaled). A losing team is never a penalty.

DurabilityMissing most of the last three seasons costs up to −15% (below 65% of games, scaled). One injured season costs nothing — only a chronic pattern does.

Price conversionEverything above adds up to a production score — not dollars yet. One last step converts that score into a price, and it's the identical number for every player in the league. So it sets what the whole board costs — it can never change who ranks above whom. Recalibrated once each offseason, never for an individual player.

Every threshold above is pegged to a public league average and refreshed each offseason — nothing is hand-picked per player, and no one gets a special rule. The exact weights are the one thing we keep.

See it on a real player

Nikola Jokić, start to finish.

Nikola Jokić2025-26 · per game

27.7PTS

12.9REB

10.7AST

.670TS%

2.2STL+BLK

3.7TOV

How he rates in each area, and what's driving it — his real stats, no dollar breakdown

ScoringElite

27.7 points a game on .670 true shooting. Buckets count for more when they come this efficiently — the elite shooting is what makes this Elite, not the volume alone.

Court impactElite

10.7 assists, 12.9 rebounds, 3.7 turnovers. Assists and rebounds add up; turnovers pull it back. A center passing like a point guard is what carries this one.

DefenseSolid

2.2 steals+blocks a game, plus above-average deflections. Every stop counts — but without big shot-blocking numbers, this lands Solid, not Elite.

Recent form — right at his season level, no hot or cold streaksteady

Team success — Denver's winning record earns a small bump▲ bump

Durability — three healthy seasons, no discount✓ clear

Fair value$0.00

That's the whole formula — the same three parts and three adjustments for every player, from a rookie to an MVP. No thumb on the scale.

What you see on every player

The same breakdown, live, on his card.

Nikola Jokić DEN · Center · exampleFV $10.20 · MKT $11.42

The crowd's paying +12% over fair value — that's the gap. Too high? That's your sell.

Market price shown for illustration · fair value refreshes within half an hour of his last game

What backs the number

You don't have to take our word for it.

Straight from public stats

Only real, public numbers — his production, his defense, his team's record — every input double-checked against independent sources.

Updates every game

Recalculated within half an hour of the final buzzer, all season long.

The same for everyone

One formula, the same weights for a superstar and a rookie — no favorites, no hand-tuning.

Fair value is the baseline, not the verdict. The market decides what a player's shares are worth — you decide whether it has it right.